Good day and happy weekend, especially considering another bunch of Allsvenskan games are just around the corner. Last week we had slow start to the round with a measly seven goals scored across five matches on Saturday and Sunday. Conversely, the Monday encounters were real displays of firework, giving us another 14 goals in three games. Häcken – Brommapojkarna was the pick of the bunch, a thrilling 4-3 spectacle where BP deserved much more.
Unstoppable Malmö?
The Malmö steam train rolls on and it looks like no one can stop them. Another demolition, this time 4-0 against the hapless IFK Värnamo, means they have scored eleven goals in the first three games. Erik Botheim got a goal and an assist to boot and was lively overall, getting five shots off and creating two chances. He was much more involved in overall play than he has been recently and was more of a focal point to link up with his teammates than Isaac Kiese Thelin in this one.
There are two massive showdowns with Djurgården in the coming couple of weeks, first away in the league next Thursday, followed by the cup final at Eleda Stadion six days later. Those two tests will help determine just how dominant MFF can be domestically this season, with Djurgården still looking like the most likely competitors despite some tepid early-season performances.
Elfsborg are in trouble…
And it could get worse before it gets better. After a deserved 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Hammarby, the club confirmed head coach Jimmy Thelin will be leaving for the Scottish Premier League and Aberdeen this summer. The longest-serving manager in Sweden’s top tier has taken Elfsborg from a mediocre mid-table side to serious title contenders and was unfortunate not to win the trophy last season. Oscar Hiljemark, who at his age could still be playing at the top level, comes in instead, and the club is also working on getting Swedish Football Federation’s Technical Director Peter Wettergren in. Nonetheless, a poor start to the season won’t be helped by such unsettling news. The new forward line has struggled to gel, with prestige signing Arber Zeneli especially poor and Jalal Abdullai not pulling up any trees up front. Maybe a good dose of Per Frick fuckery needs to be added to set things straight.
Game of the week: Häcken - Brommapojkarna
This was as chaotic and entertaining as it gets. Häcken somehow - thanks to some high-quality finishing in all fairness - managed to score four times from a combined total Expected Goals (xG) figure of 0.76. On the other hand, Brommapojkarna squandered plenty of big opportunities and walked away with nothing. Nikola Vasic, in particular, had a shocker, putting two huge chances straight at the goalkeeper, and missing the target on other occasions. BP have been screaming out for a prolific goal scorer to put away the many chances they create, unfortunately that just isn’t Vasic. He was in fact one of the biggest underperformers compared to xG of all strikers in the entire division last season.
Only Musa Qurbanly and Dijan Vukojevic fared worse in front of goal, with Vasic missing one expected goal every five matches or so. Over the course of 30 games, that adds up…
Derby day special - Why is Pittas misfiring?
The first Stockholm derby of the league season is looming, but in fact, we saw these two teams face off in a hotly contested Swedish Cup semi-final only weeks ago. As tends to be the case, it was incredibly feisty and close-fought, with Djurgården eventually coming out on top in a penalty shootout. While neither team is without a loss in the first three Allsvenskan rounds, they also haven’t hit the heights we might expect in terms of performances, with AIK especially blunt. Rui Modesto has in fairness been a revelation in an advanced role compared to last season’s full-back position, and Omar Faraj looks to be back to his battling best up top.
I would like to focus on a different player though, who is equally key to their successes, and that is his striker partner Ioannis Pittas. The Cypriot came in with plenty of experience and hit the ground running last season, bagging nine goals in thirteen appearances. As such, he ranked as one of the best strikers in the division, being one of the most frequent shooters (2.84 shots per game) while also getting to pretty high-quality chances, as suggested by his xG per shot figure of 0.17.
This gives him a relatively high xG per 90 minutes of 0.48. His expected goals figure was surpassed by his actual goals scored, sitting at 0.60 per 90 (seen in the size of the data points in Graph 2), suggesting strong finishing ability, although caution is required with limited sample sizes when dealing with xG.
This year, however, he has been less prolific to date, only getting on the scoresheet once. It points to a slightly different role for him this campaign, but the question is whether that is by design or coincidence. As both the data and the eye test suggest, he struggles from a creative standpoint but is quite accomplished as a goalscorer, so a conscious tactical shift may be ill-advised.
He is taking around as many shots per game as he did before, however the quality of the chances he gets are significantly lower (0.04 xG per shot compared to 0.17 in 2023). In fact, in nearly all metrics related to shooting, there has been a significant downturn. It should be noted here that with such a small sample size of only three matches, season data is likely to change significantly and can do so quickly, but this still gives us some indication of what has happened to date.
On the flipside, he is more involved in open play this year, accumulating nearly 42% more passes per game. He is also being more progressive, playing 3.43 passes forward per match so far compared to last season’s 1.63, and getting the ball into the penalty area more. Having said that, he has only set up a single shot so far, with a paltry expected assist figure of 0.03, and his pass percentage into the final third is very low. The indication here is that he is receiving the ball either slightly deeper or wider than before, asked to run the channels, being more involved in build-up play and allowing runners beyond him, but not being as present in front of goal. This has been evident watching the games too, seeing him receiving the ball in wider areas than we’re used to, also crossing significantly more.
Unfortunately for both himself and the team, his strengths don’t lie in link-up play or creation but in front of goal. We saw with last week’s finish for his first goal of the season how lethal he can be if given the chance, but the team then needs to maximise his potential of getting those opportunities. Omar Faraj likes receiving between the lines anyway and is the focal point for passes forward, meaning Pittas should be able to stay on the last line and utilise his deceptive off-ball movement and speed to get in behind.
He will be up against one of the absolute best central defenders in Allsvenskan, Marcus Danielson, who has begun this season impeccably. Calm in possession, he reads the game incredibly well and rarely makes mistakes, and this composure will be vital in a game of such magnitude. Without the experience of the injured Rasmus Schüller shielding the back line, the center-backs have an even bigger responsibility.
Danielson has one of the highest success rates in terms of both aerial and defensive duels in the league thanks to his impeccable timing in challenges. Looking at percentage values for defensive metrics is often preferred as team strength and playing styles can largely dictate the quantities of such values, with worse teams generally racking up significantly more defensive actions.
Another key for Djurgården is getting Deniz Hümmet present in the game. He was much more involved in open play against Sirius last week and scored a screamer too. While he can do more in terms of box movement to get to better chances, he certainly has a potent long-distance shot, as indicated by his large xG overperformance last season (see Graph 1). What is noticeable about his 2023 season is the fact he tended to get to quite few shots per game (2.24), with a comparatively low xG per shot at 0.11. This could however be related to Kalmar’s playing style, with other striker Mileta Rajovic also on the lower side on both these metrics. Looking at Musa Qurbanly’s impressive underlying numbers as the lone Djurgården striker last autumn, we can expect those Hümmet numbers to increase over the course of the season, with his Swedish Cup form as some indication of what is possible.
I’m going to put my money on an evenly contested draw again, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Djurgården manage to pull something out of the bag, with their recent away derby form improving of late.
Elsewhere, Västerås will be in serious trouble against Malmö, Sirius will be expected to get back to winning ways facing Värnamo, and Häcken - Hammarby on Sunday probably provides the biggest entertainment except for the derby.
Sun is shining in London, best make the most of it. Have a lovely Saturday and beyond.